A Tentative Theory of Challenges Facing 21st Century China

Abstract

1. Population expected to peak around 1.6 billion people circa 2030. A long-term state-decreed restrictive population control policy (Planned Birth Policy 计划生育) caused a substantial imbalanced ratio between males and females, which might entail significant sociological problems, and in turn, jeopardize the sustainability of that Harmonious Society 和谐社会, e.g., high unemployment rates among rural male young adults, which will entrenched them in life-long poverty and consequently many will be obliged to take up celibacies, which is historically demonstrated, one of the major factors for revolution and social turmoil. The sheer volume of such an egregious population is ipso facto a precarious factor that challenges 21^st century China.

2. Energy shortages plus environmental degradations will contribute to a major crisis of social well-being. The plight of high cost of energy consumption by a gargantuan demographics might strip off people’s wealth, causing inflation which oblige them to eke out a living sustaining only the very basic livelihood. Continued degradation of the environment especially in Northern China such as carbon emission due to high demand of energy consumption will further complicate problems into an exponential rate, e.g. water shortages in northern China has already been a poignant issues and will only exacerbate in times to come. Climate changes with increasing droughts in the north and floods in the south have been undergoing a consistent rise for the past 30 years and are projected to continue the trend, which might lead to some major disastrous consequences and subsequently impact the whole society.

3. Rising inter/intra-regional income discrepancy and weak state-run financial institutions might entail an economic meltdown in the not-so-distant future. Income discrepancy among the people will further exacerbate tension between the haves and the have-nots. Without reliable welfare system, many will be brought to the brink of desperation, while the sole reliance on the nouveau riches to maintain a sound market economy is unfeasible on a long-term basis. Should the economic success bubble that we have enjoyed for the past 30 years burst eventually, the consequence of which will hit China harder than that of the Great Depression hit the U.S. in the 1930’s. Financial breakdown of China will obviously hurt the global economy, but even with expected relief from IMF, WTO, U.N. or any other major economic partners, it is China and ultimately the people that will hurt the most, which might bring great social upheavals and ultimately subvert the legitimacy of CCP’s regime.

4. Widespread corruption and the absence of moral code among the government bureaucrats and CCP cadres within this system of One-party rulership slowly corrode the soundness and well-being of the whole society. In times of dire contingencies, the apathy and selfish government behaviors will cause further resentment and enrage the general populace into rebellion against the government, with numerous instances of thousands-strong riots already taken place ubiquitously in China today. Should the disgruntled forces be brought to an organized and unified front, akin to that of the 1989 Tiananmen Square student demonstration, it is not difficult for the CCP to envision the similar fate they will succumb to like that of their comrades in the Eastern Europe and Soviet Russia.

5. Globalization ties China to the well-being and social trends of the whole world. In the event of any global political/economic crisis, China will inevitably be impacted with consequences directly linked to the severeness of such contingencies. So goes the theory of the “butterfly effect” that a butterfly flutters its wings in one part of the world will cause a hurricane in another. The World Wide Web and the omnipresence of the media has linked people of China to the whole world, which might engendered their longing for freedom and civil rights that they’re being deprived for until this day. Disillusionment with the auras of CCP especially in times of difficulties will lead the people upon the quest for social/political reformation.

6. Military mobilization in the Western Pacific among the PLA will foster an East Asia arms race in times to come, with noticeable traits already taken place today, e.g. the upgrades of Japanese military from agency level to a full-fledged ministry status in 2007; modernization of Taiwan’s ROC military, India, Pakistan, Southeast Asian countries have all taken a significant advancement for their military upgrades, North Korea is on the process of obtaining nuclear arsenals and already possessed ICBMs, all of which threatens the regional security of East Asia. Unresolved problems such as North/South Korea, Taiwan Strait, Tibet, Xingjiang, Communist Nepal, political instabilities of Southeastern Asian countries, Kashmir, Chinese/India border disputes, etc. could all be potential triggers. An East Asian version of the pre-WWI geopolitical tension is not something out of the blue, and might very well become part of reality. Should such military showdown taken place anywhere in Asia, the chain reaction that follows will be prone to blow up to a full scale war.